Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Utah is headed for growing pains with scarce housing, high in-migration and declining birth rates
Urban Living
Posted By Babs De Lay on November 8, 2023, 4:00 AM
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute is unique to Utah. It develops and shares economic and demographic and public policy data and research, including massive real estate and construction research on our markets in Utah.
Gardner himself was the co-founder and president of the Boyer Company, a firm that has developed more than 20 million square feet of real estate projects in the Western U.S. He was also finance chairman of the Salt Lake Olympic Bid Committee and is chairman of the Days of '47 Rodeo. I pay close attention to the Institute's constant findings of real estate data and recently listened to a report about real estate in our state that blew me away. To wit:
—One-third of mortgage holders here have an interest rate on their primary mortgage/home loan of less than 3%. That number gives us an indication why so few homes are on the market because who would want to give up such a low interest rate to buy something new with an 8% interest rate?
—We need 178,000 new housing units in the state by 2030 to keep up with demand.
—Interest rates on home loans are not going to come down for a long, long time.
—Apartment rents have been heading slightly downward.
—Expect 30% of the state's population to be made up of minorities by 2030.
—61% of our growth in population is from in-migration.
Those stats point to a vibrant economy, with many folks moving here. But they are going to find buying a home expensive, to say the least.
While more people are moving to Utah than leaving the state, the Institute is finding that our school-age population (age 5-17) is declining, with a projection of 40,000 fewer school-age youth here by 2032, and that school-age youth will make up a smaller share of our total population, dropping from 19.5% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2032.
Generally speaking, when you have less children being born, there will be less property taxes generated, which is a major source of revenue for many school districts and local governments. Declining birth rates are not good for most economies as it has a negative impact on the size of our overall workforce. Interestingly enough, birth rates are declining nationwide, with research showing that women are pushing off having children from their 20s to their 30s. Also, Utah is suffering from not enough day care facilities, which impacts us daily in this state and must be addressed with so much more population growth expected.
The most recent research by the Institute has found five counties—Utah, Washington, Cache, Davis and Wasatch—show projected increases of more than 4,000 school-age children from 2020 to 2060. Except for Davis County, all these increases exceed 30% growth. Projections show Utah County will grow immensely, adding nearly 75,000 school-age children by 2060.
About The Author
Babs De Lay
A full-time broker/owner of Urban Utah Homes and Estates, Babs De Lay serves on the Salt Lake City Historic Landmark Commission. A writer and golfer, you'll find them working as a staff guardian at the Temple at Burning Man each year.
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