A record-breaking winter gave the Great Salt Lake a boost, but only a change in how Utahns use water will save it 

• Derek Carlisle

On Nov. 18, 2022—following several early-season snowstorms and weeks of consistently cold weather—Alta, Snowbird and Snowbasin all opened for the winter ski season, two weeks earlier than originally planned. And by that point, three other Utah resorts had already started running the lifts. 

Brianhead, a more than three-hour trip south of Salt Lake City, was the first to open on Nov. 4—the earliest opening in its history and the fourth earliest in the state's history overall. Throughout Utah, there was optimism that the 2022-2023 winter would be a wet one.

It wasn't until Nov. 23, however, that the effects of those early storms were noticeable at the Great Salt Lake. The previous day it had, for the umpteenth time in the past couple of years, reached a new historic low—bottoming out at an estimated 4,188 feet above sea level. 

At that point, the water level was so low that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge at the Saltair boat harbor could no longer make an accurate measurement.

But how wet the winter ended up being, of course, exceeded all expectations. Several ski resorts shattered total snowfall records. Alta had, by most measurements, the most snow of any resort in the lower-48, topping out at 903 total inches for the year, blowing past its previous record by nearly 13 feet. 

According to data from the Utah Division of Water Rights, the amount of liquid water contained in the snowpack was more than 30 inches—almost twice the annual average—and a number of areas, including those that directly affect the Great Salt Lake, were at more than 40 inches. 

"We are in uncharted territory," Kim Wells, the communications director for the Department of Natural Resources (DNR), wrote in an email. "We have never seen this much snow since snowpack measuring began." 

As of early June, about three-quarters of that snowpack had melted. A limited amount of flooding, washed-out roads and landslides have come with it, but the state's reservoirs—with the notable exception of Southern Utah's Lake Powell—are mostly full or expected to be full within a few weeks. Though most of the state remains classified as "abnormally dry" by the National Drought Mitigation Center, it is a dramatic improvement from this point in time last year, when virtually all of Utah was listed in "severe drought." 

This abundance of water has boded well for the Great Salt Lake, and not a moment too soon. Since its lowest point in November, it has risen over 5 feet to an elevation of 4,193.8 feet above sea level. Boats have begun returning to the harbors, which have been completely dry for the last couple years.

Data from the Utah Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands (DFFSL) show that saline levels in November—when the Great Salt Lake was at its lowest level—were at a record high of about 185 grams per liter. At that level, brine shrimp—which are the most saline-tolerant species on earth—tend to go into a so-called "survival mode."

Activity slows. Reproduction levels drop. The millions of migratory birds that stop at the lake to feed and/or breed on their remarkable journeys find less to eat. The brine shrimp industry at the Great Salt Lake, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world's brine shrimp aquaculture, suffers. 

According to the DFFSL, a healthy saline level in the autumn—when the brine shrimp harvest occurs—is between 120 to 160 grams per liter. And After the record-breaking winter and subsequent rise of lake levels, saline levels are currently around 140 to 145 grams per liter. 

In many ways, the lake is rebounding, and there are a number of reasons to be hopeful. But any optimism should be tapered by prudence. "Utahns would be remiss to hope for wet years as a strategy to preserve the Great Salt Lake," said Sarah Null, an associate professor of watershed sciences at Utah State University.

Null's statement reflects the opinion of most researchers. One would be hard-pressed to find an expert on the subject who suggests that getting the lake back to a healthy water level is going to be easy.

One record-shattering winter is not going to do it and the conditions are unlikely to consistently repeat. The recent months have been an "anomaly," said biology professor Bonnie Baxter, director of the Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster College.

"We literally need another couple years with this ridiculous amount of snow—in a row," she said.

"And that's very unlikely."

Saline Solutions 
Scott Paxman is the general manager of the Weber Basin Water Conservancy District. In an effort to ensure its reservoirs are filled in a way that minimizes the risk of flooding and uncontrolled releases, he said the district—the second largest in the state—has delivered approximately 700,000 acre-feet to the Great Salt Lake since March (one acre foot is equal to 325,850 gallons). 

"The deliveries have been approximately 2.4 billion gallons of water per day," Paxman said.

Data from the USGS gauges located near the Great Salt Lake on its three main tributaries—the Weber, Bear and Jordan Rivers—report total inflows of more than 1.2 million acre feet since February.  Nearly two-thirds of all water in the Great Salt Lake comes from these tributaries, while 30% comes from direct precipitation and 3% from groundwater. 

The increased inflow has helped to stabilize saline levels that were rapidly approaching a breaking point. Ben Stireman—the Sovereign Lands Program Administrator with the DFFSL—said there are a number of factors that determine how much saline levels fluctuate, but those levels are generally lowest in the spring. 

As water is diverted away from the lake for consumptive uses, and as the summer heat causes water to evaporate, saline levels increase. 

"It is tough to predict where salinity levels will be in the fall," Stireman said, "because it is based on how much water evaporates over the course of the summer. In a typical year, salinity raises about 35 grams per liter."

 The inference is that, even though the lake is currently at a saline level considered to be healthy for brine shrimp, it will likely climb back outside of that range by the end of the year. 

Because the Great Salt Lake is a terminal lake—meaning that rivers flow into it but not away from it— water leaves mainly through evaporation. And according to the USGS, an average of 2.5 million acre-feet of water evaporate from it each year. When the lake first reached a new all-time low—in July 2021—that level was 4,191.3 feet above sea level. Between that time and November 2022 (or 16 months), it fell by another 3.1 feet. 

Those trends suggest that a dry summer and fall—which Utah has experienced for most of the past two decades—could leave the lake levels only slightly improved heading into 2024. Null said that over the past two decades, Utah has experienced one wetter-than-average year for every five drier-than-average years. 

"Wet years are amazingly helpful," Null said, "and we should leverage them to deliver as much water to the Great Salt Lake as is possible." 

Compared to July of 2021, the Great Salt Lake is up roughly 2.5 feet. But assuming the trend of five dry years to every one wet year continues, the lake could set a new all-time low within two to three years—unless, that is, a significant amount of water is supplied to the Great Salt Lake by a means other than Mother Nature's bounty.

In 2016, Null was part of a team of experts at Utah State University who used a hydrological model to compare the difference between past and current annual depletions at the lake and its historical fluctuations in elevation. Although the lake rises and shrinks naturally due to climatic conditions, the researchers concluded that there has been "no significant long-term change in precipitation and water supply from mountain tributaries since the pioneers arrived in 1847" and that "water development and river diversions ... have produced a persistent reduction in water supply to the lake." 

Most experts agree that a healthy lake level falls somewhere between 4,198 and 4,205 feet in elevation. But to reach that point, the way most Utahns view water use needs to change.

Zachary Frankel is the executive director of the Utah Rivers Council and one of the most vocal critics of water policy in Utah. In a Zoom call in the fall of 2022, he said Utahns use almost 300 gallons of water per person per day, which is "twice the national average and almost three times as much as Phoenix or Las Vegas."

And the way Utahns pay for water, he said, is a big part of the problem. "Utah is the second-driest state in the nation," Frankel said. "It doesn't make much sense that we have the cheapest water." 

Use More, Pay More
During the 2022 state legislative session—which leaders hailed as the "year of water"—a team of researchers and experts was established to assess the policies that lawmakers have enacted in regard to the declining water levels at the Great Salt Lake and to suggest additional policy options prior to the 2023 legislative session. This team, which called itself "Strike Force," consisted of experts from the University of Utah, Utah State University and several governmental agencies. 

According to the team's assessment, more than 90% of Utahns pay water rates that are subsidized by revenues unrelated to water use, such as property and sales taxes and business valuations. And some of the biggest water users in the state—churches, universities and municipal golf courses—are largely exempt from paying property taxes, meaning they don't share in the taxpayer burden of those water subsidies. 

The Strike Force noted that a tiered water-pricing system—in which those who use large quantities of water are charged at higher rates—is viewed by economists as a "Pareto improvement," or public policy that is beneficial to society without harming anyone. 

But water lobbies have consistently pushed back on any change to water pricing, saying it would increase transaction and financing costs for water districts—the smallest of which tend to work on a tight budget—as well as negatively affect the state's bond ratings. Though environmental groups and conservative groups, such as the Utah Taxpayers Association and Libertas Institute, agree that a tiered water-pricing system makes sense, the Legislature has not enacted the change.

Both the economic impacts and public health risks of a dry lake have been well documented. A report prepared for the Great Salt Lake Advisory Council in 2012 estimated the economic significance of the Great Salt Lake to be $1.3 billion dollars annually. Some estimates put the annual dollar value today at closer to $2 billion.

Kevin Perry, department chair of the U's Atmospheric Sciences, spent several years setting up grid points every 500 meters on the exposed lakebed and tested more than 3 tons of soil in his lab on campus. He identified a number of harmful heavy metals and other toxins within the crust, and every single measurement of arsenic he recorded exceeded toxicity levels set by the Environmental Protection Agency. 

The longer the lakebed remains dry, the more fine dust it will create and the more likely it is that windstorms will sweep the toxic dust into the air. That dust will be carried into the neighboring communities along the Wasatch Front—where the majority of Utahns live and breathe. Those who inhale in the dust into their lungs increase the risk of chronic diseases such as skin, lung and bladder cancers. 

"Our air quality has significantly improved over the last 20 years," Perry said. "The [exposed shoreline of the] Great Salt Lake poses a threat to those improvements. If we don't do something about it now, we could be forced into federally mandated mitigation measures," which would cost the state billions of dollars.

In another point of emphasis made by the Strike Force team, it was recommended that policies enacted by lawmakers focus on human water use and that to fill the lake to the minimum healthy elevation level of 4,198 feet above sea level in 10 years, an average of 2.4 million acre-feet of water per year would need to flow into the lake through its main tributaries. 

The average inflows between 2000 and 2022 were roughly 1.6 million acre-feet per year. In addition, the team estimated that the conservation of approximately 300,000 acre-feet per year will be needed to prevent further decline to water levels to compensate for inflows that may be below average.  

That means the gap between the average annual inflows and the amount estimated to be needed in order to fill the lake to healthy levels within 10 years is 760,000 acre feet. Given that the lake's three main tributaries are considered "fully appropriated,"—that is, every drop of water is spoken for before it reaches the Great Salt Lake—the question is, from where will this water come? 

Drops in the Bucket
In March, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints announced that it would be donating, in perpetuity, 20,000 acre feet of water rights annually to the Great Salt Lake. This amount is approximately enough water to fill Little Dell Reservoir, between East and Parleys canyons.

But, to put the enormity of the water deficit at the Great Salt Lake into perspective, the LDS Church's contribution is only 2.6% of the estimated additional water needed to reach the lake each year in order to bring it to healthy levels within a decade.

"It's a drop in the bucket," Brigham Young University ecologist Ben Abbott told the Associated Press, "but it's also a big drop."

During the 2022 legislative session, a number of water-related bills were passed, but two items specifically stood out in regard to the decline of the Great Salt Lake—HB33 and the creation of a Water Enhancement Trust. HB33 expanded the definition of "beneficial use" of water and changed who is able to hold in-stream water rights. Prior to this legislation, beneficial use of water in Utah was designated for things such as agriculture, mining and municipal purposes. Storage in the Great Salt Lake did not meet the criteria of a "beneficial use," but it now does.

And rights holders now have the option to lease their water to the state—while still retaining those water rights—and allow unused water to flow to the Great Salt Lake. 

The Water Enhancement Trust was launched with $40 million to help pay for those leases. The National Audubon Society and Nature Conservancy were entrusted to manage that trust.

Both items were hailed as historic. Former Rep. Joel Ferry, R-Box Elder—who sponsored HB44 and later that year became head of Utah's DNR—stood in front of the Utah House and proclaimed that his bill was "one of the most significant pieces of water legislation that we will see during our time here at the Capitol."

But the idea was mostly met with skepticism among water rights holders, who viewed the plan as a "water grab." According to the Utah Division of Water Rights, there are more than 700 irrigation and canal companies operating within the Great Salt Lake basin. Water that is potentially leased to the Great Salt Lake would have to travel many miles, through a maze of different canals and municipalities, with little to no way of measuring or ascertaining whether the water is being diverted elsewhere and used before it reaches the Great Salt Lake. 

So far, it appears no one has signed up for the leasing program.

Marcelle Shoop is the executive director of the Great Salt Lake Watershed Enhancement Trust. She suggested it was too early to evaluate the success of the program, as many of the plans for the trust, including the development of an advisory council, were finalized in January of this year. 

"We are in the process of pursuing water transactions," she said. "[We are] talking with water rights holders and working on transactions that are in process but not ready to be discussed at this time. When transactions are finalized and the parties to those transactions are ready, more information can be shared."

Matt Yost, an agroclimate extention specialist at Utah State University, was also a member of Strike Force. He noted that agriculture optimization—or using less water to grow the same crop yield—should be a priority. 

The initial idea of HB33 was that during dry years, water rights holders could let their land go fallow and lease those water rights through the trust. But Yost said that deficit irrigation and fallowing could have a negative impact on rural communities. Not only does fallowing the land decrease water in aquifers, he said, it can have many unintended consequences that affect the broader agricultural industry, including financial institutions, farm equipment suppliers and livestock firms.

"A fallowing program should consider the comprehensive cost and impact," Yost said, "and try to compensate for that."

The state Legislature must have taken note. In 2023, HB277 was enacted to ensure that a farmer who optimizes his methods—and thereby cuts his or her water usage—is no longer at risk of losing the part of his or her legal allotment that is not used. This surplus water could still be leased through the trust, and the land could still yield crops.

The Strike Force estimates that the leasing program could eventually yield up to 300,000 acre feet of water per year and that a reduction in agricultural consumption by 15%—through optimization—could bring an additional 180,000 acre feet per year. But even if these lofty goals are reached, another 280,000 acre feet of water inflows would still be needed annually to bring the lake level back to the minimum healthy level within a decade.

Of the Water Enhancement Trust's initial $40 million allotment, $10 million was earmarked specifically to "restore and protect wetlands." If the remaining $30 million is entirely used to pay for leased water and the estimated yield of 300,000 is the goal, that means an average of $100 could be paid per acre foot. And to sustain that level of payment, the trust would, of course, need to bring in at least $30 million per year in donations or new taxpayer funding.

Shoop said there are many factors that "go into analyzing the value or price of a water transaction, including geographic location, quantity, local market and supply, transferability of water from one location to another, among other considerations." She did not offer a range of the estimated market value of these leases.

The past legislative session saw numerous tweaks to existing water laws, as well as an increase in funding for agricultural optimization of $200 million. The majority of that appropriation, Yost said, will be spent on improving water delivery systems, such as lining or piping canals and modernizing irrigation systems. 

The session also saw the creation of a Great Salt Lake commissioner, who is tasked with designing a more holistic strategy for the "long-term health" of the lake. Government agencies and scientific experts tend to silo their work. The task of the commissioner—or lake "czar"—is to make that work more collaborative.

On his first day on the job, the newly appointed commissioner, Brian Steed, told reporters that he hopes the general public will avoid "fatigue" from the efforts to bring the Great Salt Lake back to healthy water levels, but that the message to save and conserve water is here to stay.

Only time can answer whether or not Utahns are up to the task.