Utah GOP hardliners might not like what the party becomes if they get their wish and repeal signature gathering. 

If hardliners like Phil Lyman, a former lawmaker and gubernatorial candidate, gain control of the Utah GOP, and if they manage to repeal SB54, ending the signature-gathering option for primary candidates—it could be the best thing to happen to the Utah Republican Party.

Hear me out.

Since the passage of SB54 in 2014, far-right hardliners have managed to monopolize the GOP delegate nomination system. Passed as a compromise between the Utah Legislature and backers of the Count My Vote initiative, SB54 created a dual path to the partisan primary ballot: candidates could either gather signatures or go through the traditional caucus and convention process.

In the decade under SB54, mainstream conservative candidates have had the luxury of a signature "back up" plan, should they fail to woo enough party delegates to support them at convention. But party purists see the signature path as an assault on the caucus/convention system, allowing establishment-friendly candidates to avoid the scrutiny of the delegates.

Lyman's crusade against SB54 is also personal. In 2024, he dominated the state GOP convention in the gubernatorial race, soundly defeating incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox in that setting. But Cox, using the signature path, advanced to the primary, where he easily defeated Lyman.

To Lyman, this proved that the signature path allows establishment-backed candidates to ignore the will of the "true" Republican base. But what if getting rid of SB54 had the exact opposite effect?

The last time Utah had a caucus/convention-only system was in 2012. That year, "mainstream" Republicans like the late Sen. Orrin Hatch and former Gov. Gary Herbert faced serious challenges from the right—Hatch from Dan Liljenquist and Herbert from Morgan Philpot and others. Establishment attorney general candidate John Swallow was challenged from the right by his eventual successor Sean Reyes.

It was a test of whether Utah's GOP establishment could survive in a system where a few thousand ultra-engaged delegates held the keys to the ballot. The answer? They absolutely could—when the establishment voters showed up.

Hatch and Herbert saw the threat coming and executed a strategy of packing the caucus. Hatch, especially, went all in, spending multiple thousands of dollars urging widespread participation by mainstream Republicans at their neighborhood caucuses.

My precinct had more than 60 attendees, compared to the 10 or fewer we've averaged in the years since. In some precincts, caucus attendance in 2012 was in the hundreds.

The result? Liljenquist managed to squeak through the convention in second place and face Hatch in the primary, where he was soundly defeated. Herbert walked away with the nomination outright at convention.

The lesson? When moderate and establishment Republicans choose to engage in the caucus, they win.

However, since 2014, SB54 has allowed candidates to gather signatures and go straight to the primary ballot, which has given moderates an escape hatch. They don't have to play the caucus game.

That's why hard-right candidates have gained so much influence at the convention and in party leadership—they're the only ones consistently showing up.

But let's say that SB54 disappears, as opponents have clamored for since its passage. No more signature path. Suddenly, moderate and pragmatic conservatives have no choice but to engage in the caucus system again.

They start showing up in force, just like in 2012. The delegate pool shifts—instead of being dominated by a small group of activists, it starts to better resemble the broader Utah GOP. And Utah has repeatedly shown that the broader GOP electorate supports more moderate conservative candidates, like Mitt Romney, Spencer Cox and John Curtis.

Think what it would mean for races like the one in House District 16 in 2022. Far-right challenger Trevor Lee took out long-time moderate incumbent Steve Handy at convention and went on to win the general election. Although Handy chose not to gather signatures, it's not unreasonable to conclude that, but for SB54 more moderate Republicans would have shown up on caucus night, and the delegates at the convention would have been more representative of the greater party. Without SB54, Rep. Trevor Lee might not be representing Davis County in the Legislature today.

The same dynamic played out in 2018, when now-Congressman Mike Kennedy upset former Sen. Mitt Romney at convention—only for Romney to obliterate Kennedy in the primary. If SB54 hadn't existed, Romney would have had no choice but to focus on convention delegates, and that would have changed the composition of who showed up.

A post-SB54 Utah could look a lot like pre-SB54 Utah, with caucus night once again the critical election battleground. Center-right moderates, knowing it's their only path to victory, would organize, strategize and show up in force. The ultra-right's iron grip on the convention would loosen, fast.

If SB54's signature path had not been available to Gov. Cox in 2024, he likely would have trounced Lyman at the convention—because his campaign and strategy would have been totally different, and because the broader Utah GOP has shown that they're not the far-right ideologues that Lyman et al. would have us believe them to be.

And just like how moderate independents and Democrats switch their registration to vote in GOP primaries (much to the dismay of Republicans in the Utah Legislature), you'd see that same dynamic shifted to the caucus meetings. People who actually represent the majority of Utah Republicans would step up and take control of the process, just like Hatch's team did in 2012.

The far-right activists who think they'll own the caucus forever? They'd be in for a rude awakening if SB54, and signature gathering, went away.

So, to the Lymans and Chris Nulls (former Salt Lake County GOP chairman) and Mike Lees of the world—be careful what you wish for. If you repeal SB54, you might just be handing power right back to the moderates you despise, and you'll end up with even less representation than you have now.

Private Eye is off this week. Zach Jacob is a member of the West Jordan City Council and former Republican. He previously served in the Utah GOP as a state and county delegate and a 2022 candidate for Utah House. Send feedback to comments@cityweekly.net